Magnificent 180 degree Hood Canal water and Olympic Mountain views from this 1.5 acre gently sloping, low bank and bulk headed waterfront property. 1928 Craftsman style home is mostly boarded up-use extreme caution when viewing. 4 bedroom septic design was approved in 2007 but has expired. Well has been decommissioned. PUD water is at the street (approval for hook up must be verified by buyer).

View of the Sunsets & Olympic Mountains over the water of the Hood Canal is unsurpassed! 3/4 acre lot with 95 ft. of medium bank waterfront is lushly landscaped & maintained to perfection. Custom, quality built home has gracious, free flowing floor plan maximizing the sweeping views. Master bed & main floor sun decks too. Granite kitchen, bath & laundry counters. Opulent master bath just updated for you! Gleaming red oak & tile floors, new carpeting & light fixtures plus fresh paint inside & out.

Owners have transformed this Kitsap Lake & Olympic Mountain view home & gardens. New birch wide planked flooring, granite kitchen counters, plantation shutters, exquisite vessel sinks and silestone in bathrooms, lighting fixtures & hardware, fresh interior paint in soft designer colors - newly painted exterior too. You’ll love the double sided fireplace & jet tub in the master suite. Full length view deck perfect for lounging plus lower level patio. Pool table can stay! Beautiful flowering perennials.

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A Secret Garden! To describe the landscaping behind the back yard privacy fencing as magnificent, is an understatement: raised beds for veggies & herbs, espaliered apple trees, a magical Japanese garden & pond, Pagoda with covered deck, green house, fire pit & much more. Owner added a sun room with an enclosed slate floored slide porch, propane living room stove, even tiled the window sills. Garage has deep sink & a 3/4 bath. Extra “room” in the elevated crawl space.

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Craftsman style home with main floor master suite! Desirable corner lot on private interior street. Two wall mounted flat screen TV's included in sale! All appliances including washer & dryer, stay. Custom wood blinds and drapes too. Gas living room free standing stove means low heating bills. Beautiful bamboo floors. Sunny upstairs super sized bedroom with huge walk in closet would make a wonderful craft, quilting or painting studio. Marina, post office, shops, restaurants, yoga class within easy walk!

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The graphs and data in our monthly reports can sometimes be misleading. This month it looks like closed sales are low, that prices are markedly below levels of the past 5 years, and that inventory remains very low compared to the past several years. Pending sales appear to be surging. It seems like there is rising demand. If the inventory is low and demand is rising, shouldn’t prices go up? So far this month it’s tough to tell. Comparing closed sales thus far in April with closed sales for March, April’s month-to-date median price has risen to $233,000 from $217,500, while April’s average price has fallen to $271,954 from $294,173. Pretty confusing! Actually it shows a shift in price distribution since the median or middle price has risen (relatively fewer sales in the lower price ranges) and the average has fallen (so the size of the asymmetric long tail in the upper price ranges is relatively smaller). The sales we are seeing often involve sellers who have to sell (including all bank owned and short sales) and buyers who are aggressively negotiating to purchase at the lowest price. Under those circumstances it seems that the best the scarcity of inventory is doing is keeping prices from falling farther. 

The National Association of Realtors is about to report that March median prices are up 3% compared to a year ago. Like many of the price rises and drops in our market, this is more a change in the number of sales in each price range (shifting the middle or median price up or down) rather than an economic effect that floats all boats. In this case the number of distressed sales nation wide fell compared to a year ago. Fewer sales in the lower price ranges (where most distressed sales occur) caused the median or middle price among all sales to be a higher price.

Have we seen the same trend of falling distressed sales in Kitsap County? Although the inventory of distressed homes is far lower now than a year ago (1118 then versus 492 now), the number of closed distressed sales in March 2011 was about the same as in March 2012.

The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in March rose about 29% from February and was about 2% lower than a year ago. Pending sales rose about 25% compared to last month and were about 33% higher than a year ago. In February, there were 160 closed sales and 305 pending sales. In March there were 206 closed sales and 382 pending sales. 38% of the closed sales were distressed properties (same as last month). 29% of the pending sales were distressed properties (same as last month). Among closed distressed sales, bank owned sales were about 4 times the number of short sales closed. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, the it looks like the number of closed sales will rise next month.

Residential Highlights

Kitsap County's residential inventory in March (1306 listings) rose less than 1% from February and is about 10% lower than a year ago. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 21% of our market (24% last month). At the end of March, RealtyTrac showed 492 (523 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. At the beginning of 2011 there were 1473 distressed properties, so we've seen a decline of more than 60%. The MLS shows only about 57% of the distressed property inventory, so there could be as many as 212 distressed properties that have yet to be put up for sale. While this is a large potential increase, it is much smaller than at the start of 2011.

Prices Are Falling...

Kitsap County's monthly median closed sale price in March ($217,750) was down 4% compared to February and down 4% compared to a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($206,717) is 2% lower than last month and about 14% lower than a year ago. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller Expectations…

The March median list price was $269,000, about 2% higher than last month and 4% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.3 months, faster than the 8.1 month turnover rate in February. The turnover rate for all sales under $400k and above $1 million was less than 8 months. All other price ranges had turnover rates of over 10 months. Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In March, the number of listings rose slightly and the number of sales rose 28% compared to February. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-12.

The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers.There were 10 sales (all but 1 on Bainbridge Island) in the $800k and above range among 71 listings County-wide in that price range. There was a sudden improvement this month in the sales in this price range. Last August there were 140 listings above $800k. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.

The number of pending sales in March was up 33% from a year ago and was up about 25% from February. The statistics for February pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.

Affordability

We assume that a buyer making the median family income puts 20% down on the median priced home and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. We assume that a first time buyer making 70% of the median income puts 10% down on a house priced at 85% of the median and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with mortgage insurance.  We assume that both buyers can afford to spend a maximum of 25% of their monthly income on the principal plus interest of the loan. Using the annual averages of median price, median income, and average annual 30 year fixed interest rate since 2001, we plot an affordability index equal to the maximum affordable payment divided by the actual payment. When the index is greater than 1, the loan is affordable to the typical buyer. When it is less than 1 some buyers cannot afford to purchase. Mortgage insurance quotes are dependent on credit scores - MI for a FICO credit score of 700 might be $20 per month higher than MI for a credit score of 750. We use 750 and have corrected all PMI values to be consistent with this. Our numbers for 2011 are estimates using the latest monthly data for median prices, interest rates, and median income. As a point of reference the index in 2001 was 1.31 and the first time buyers index was .89.

Affordability improved slightly from March because the median price fell and interest rates remained roughly constant. The affordability index rose to 1.53 in April from 1.48 in March. First time buyer affordability also rose to 1.02 from .99 in March. If you compare to past years, you’ll see that affordability is excellent. While affordability is good, lending standards have tightened considerably, and many borrowers may not qualify for the best available interest rate. Below is a  graph of the year-to-year changes in affordability and a second graph showing month-to-month affordability over the past year.

Lakefront Shangri-La. Private dock & nearly an acre of wooded, private land on the west side of Long Lake. Boat launch nearby. Complete architect designed remodel. Custom maple cabinetry, stunning granite counters, mahogany beamed ceilings! Gourmet kitchen with huge island work center & beautiful tiled floors opens to great room with soaring ceilings overlooking the lake, raised garden beds & extensive decking. Opulent top floor view master suite has loft. Upstairs guest bedroom & den/office.

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Sitting proud at the end of the road amongst the evergreens and park like grounds, resides this 4 bedroom home with loads to offer. The big gourmet kitchen with double ovens, gas cook top and ample counter space offer plenty for the cook. The home is spacious and light with big rooms for comfort in living. The private back yard is nicely landscaped with a generous sized back deck. Wander through the woods to the serene setting along the flowing stream. Listed by Taylor & Lori Brown of Prowse & Company

Good location, close to town, a big corner lot with many opportunities for gardening & shop/detached garage space make this the perfect first home! This remodeled rambler has many updates that include new carpet, paint, kitchen counter tops and a new bathroom. This home is move in ready. Come and take a look today. Listed by Taylor & Lori Brown of Prowse & Company

Overlooking the pond & fountain on the 6th green of Kitsap Golf & Country Club is a distinctive, architect designed, custom built contemporary home. All clear cedar siding. Tile roof. Open, free flowing floor plan perfect for entertaining. Surround sound. Gleaming solid hardwood floors. Gas fireplace with marble front & hearth. Wide stairs lead to sumptuous upper level master suite and lowest level work shop/office. Storage galore! Plenty of room for your golf cart in over-sized finished garage!

Compare others-Buy this! Solidly constructed Stafford built home has cathedral ceilings, wood shutters, double doors to main floor office, beautiful real hardwood floors. Gas fireplace and range. Spacious master suite holds king sized bed, has walk-in closet and tiled floor bath. Fully finished and insulated garage. You can stand up in the crawl space! Brand new back deck.

Closed waterfront sales rose 71% in February compared to January and were up 33% compared to a year ago. Pending sales are way up - up 40% from January  - so we expect even better closed sales next month. February’s listing inventory lags last year by 20%. Inventroy rose 4% compared to Janurary. January’s inventory turnover rate was about 10 months, improved, but still definitely a buyer’s market.

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