Lots of people are interested in how the housing market will perform in 2012. The Kitsap Sun gave us a point of view shortly after the release of this month’s MLS statistics - “Kitsap Home Prices Continue to Slip”. Not only that, but December sales fell 16% too. Market oscillations produce these kind of statistics - November sales and prices were up, December sales and prices were down. Still the year end values for the more stable 3 month moving average had to be more encouraging. Sales up 3% from a year ago and prices down just 1.4%.
We will offer a few housing expectations for 2012. There should be a rise in new construction sales and a rise in housing starts, though don’t expect anything earth shaking - these have been at near record lows for some time. There will be an increase in the number of foreclosures and short sales, where, despite a lowering rate of mortgage default, there is a huge backlog of (about 4 million) homeowners in foreclosure or more than 90 days behind on payments. Expect more efforts by the government to alleviate this backlog through refinancing, mortgage modifications, and deals to convert distressed homes into rental properties. Our Kitsap market? Well, the hope is that prices will stabilize and the number of sales will increase. We’ll see.
An interesting post by economist Greg Mankiw discusses why the Federal Reserve’s days of near zero interest rates may soon be coming to an end.
Kitsap County closed sales in December were down by 13% compared with December 2010 but were up by 2% compared to November 2011. The more stable 3 month moving average number of Kitsap County closed sales is up 3% compared to a year ago. Month to month trends have been oscillating up and down. Pending sales fell about 16% compared to last month but were about the same as a year ago. In November, there were 191 closed sales and 229 pending sales. In December there were 195 closed sales and 191 pending sales. 32% of the closed sales were distressed properties. 38% of the pending sales were distressed properties. Among closed distressed sales, bank owned sales were more than 2 times the number of short sales closed. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, the it looks like the number of closed sales will fall next month.
Residential Highlights
Kitsap County's residential inventory in December (1304 listings) fell 12% from November and is about 6% lower than a year ago. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 26% of our market, up from 24% reported in November. At the end of December, RealtyTrac showed 665 (707 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. At the beginning of 2011 there were 1473 distressed properties, so we've seen a decline of more than 50%. The MLS shows only about 50% of the distressed property inventory, so there could be as many as 332 distressed properties that have yet to be put up for sale. While this is large potential increase, it is much smaller than at the start of 2011.
Prices are falling...
Kitsap County's monthly median closed sale price in December ($229,900) was down 1% compared to November and down 3% compared to a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($233,800) is less than 1% lower than last month and about 1% lower than a year ago. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.
Seller expectations…
The December median list price was $265,000, about 4% lower than last month and 5% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.7 months, faster than the 7.8 month turnover rate in November. The turnover rate has recently been driven by the under $200k market, which this month had a turnover rate of 5.6 months, and the $200-300k market with an inventory of 5 months. All other price ranges were 8.5 months or more. There were no sales above $500k in South Kitsap, Bremerton, or Silverdale (second month in a row). Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In December, the number of listings fell and the number of sales was about the same as November. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-11.
The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. There were 6 sales in the $800k and above range among 72 listings County-wide in that price range. Inventory turnover in the higher price ranges has improved because the number of active listings has declined sharply rather than because of an increase in closed sales. In August 2011 there were 140 listings above $800k. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales
The number of pending sales in December was about the same as a year ago and was down about 16% from November. The statistics for December pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.
Affordability
We assume that a buyer making the median family income puts 20% down on the median priced home and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. We assume that a first time buyer making 70% of the median income puts 10% down on a house priced at 85% of the median and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with mortgage insurance. We assume that both buyers can afford to spend a maximum of 25% of their monthly income on the principal plus interest of the loan. Using the annual averages of median price, median income, and average annual 30 year fixed interest rate since 2001, we plot an affordability index equal to the maximum affordable payment divided by the actual payment. When the index is greater than 1, the loan is affordable to the typical buyer. When it is less than 1 some buyers cannot afford to purchase. Mortgage insurance quotes are dependent on credit scores - MI for a FICO credit score of 700 might be $20 per month higher than MI for a credit score of 750. We use 750 and have corrected all PMI values to be consistent with this. Our numbers for 2011 are estimates using the latest monthly data for median prices, interest rates, and median income. As a point of reference the index in 2001 was 1.31 and the first time buyers index was .89.
Affordability has rebounded to near record levels this month. Median price fell slightly and interest rates have fallen (the 30 year fixed rate is below 4%). The affordability index rose to 1.45 in January from 1.43 in December. First time buyer affordability also rose to 0.97 from 0.95 in December. While affordability is very good, lending standards have tightened considerably, and many borrowers may not qualify for the best available interest rate. Below is a graph of the year-to-year changes in affordability and a second graph showing month-to-month affordability over the past year.
| Year | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Average interest rate | 6.41 | 6.34 | 5.80 | 5.03 | 4.80 | 4.48 | 3.92 |
| Median Income | $57876 | $55430 | $61106 | $60890 | $60455 | $60455 | $60455 |
| Median Price | $275000 | $290343 | $265000 | $244499 | $240353 | $235,000 | $229,900 |
| Monthly payment | $1378 | $1443 | $1244 | $1054 | $996 | $950 | $869 |
| Affordable payment | $1206 | $1155 | $1273 | $1269 | $1259 | $1259 | $1259 |
| Affordability Index | 0.88 | 0.80 | 1.02 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| 1st time buyer payment | $1317 | $1381 | $1189 | $1008 | $952 | $988 | $913 |
| 1st time buyer affordable payment | $844 | $808 | $891 | $888 | $882 | $882 | $882 |
| 1st time buyer affordability index | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 0.97 |
January 's APR is 4.054% on a 30-Year and 3.438% on a 15-Year, both conforming. December's APR were 4.054% on a 30-Year and 3.565% on a 15-Year, both conforming. If you qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA loans , these programs have are attractive for low downpayment buyers. As a result of recent Congressional action, the conventional and FHA loan limits have again been raised to $475,000 for Kitsap County. A typical 30 year fixed jumbo APR (with total costs of the loan, not just the rate factored in) is 4.256% on one major bank web site. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://bankrate.com/.
Buyers are searching for real estate again. Please try our improved home search at http://www.prowserealestate.com/IDX-Search.
That's our report for January! We hope you have a great year. Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.
Brenda Prowse
