Real Estate Information

This is an archive copy of our December newsletter.

Prices are steady…

With more sales in the lower price ranges, the County’s monthly median closed sale price in November ($230,000) fell about 6% compared to October, and is 4% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($239,228) is about 5% lower than last month and is about 3% lower than a year ago. Looking beyond the market ups and downs caused by the federal tax incentive programs, home prices have been level or slightly declining over the past year. The current low median price coupled with still low interest rates offers good affordability. Conventional mortgage rates are now at  4.67% for 30 year loans. This rate has jumped up about .4% over the past month despite the US Federal Reserve’s resumption of quantitative easing. Jumbo loan rates have seen a similar jump.  The Kitsap County conventional and FHA loan limits remain at $475,000, which has helped sales of higher priced homes. The VA loan lender-imposed limit is $417,000. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

This is an archive copy of our November newsletter.

The economic soft spot is ending, though not yet seen in the employment numbers. The Dallas Fed sees a global economic recovery coming in waves, and with the value of the US Dollar declining some 2.7% recently, an as yet unreported increase in US exports is near at hand. So it appears to be a recovery, though probably not a brisk one yet. The Wall Street Journal reports that there are 5 unemployed for every job opening, whereas in 2007 there were only 2 unemployed for each opening. An important part of the current G20 meetings in Seoul, South Korea, is the discussion between the US and other member nations objecting to current US monetary policy, which others see as weakening the dollar at their expense.

Foreclosure lawsuits are piling up and will most likely slow the national rate of foreclosures. Although most of the large banks have declared their satisfaction with their current foreclosure documentation practices, Washington has joined with the other 49 states attorney generals in investigating the practices of mortgage servicers. While most foreclosures in Washington are administrative, Attorney General Rob McKenna has sent notice to 52 trustees (legal services that carry out administrative foreclosure procedures on behalf of the banks) to suspend any questionable foreclosures in the state. Additional information and related topics can be found on the Washington DFI Homeownership page. As you’ll see in our statistics below, this investigation comes at a time of sharply increasing foreclosure activity in Kitsap County.

The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in October fell about 15% from September and is 30% below a year ago. Pending sales fell about 10% compared to last month. In September, there were 204 closed sales and 268 pending sales. In October there were 174 closed sales and 241 pending sales. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. This graph shows how pending sales lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude - by about 2 months - and also shows the rise in pending sales at each of the homebuyer tax credit expirations (November and April) and the fall each took the subsequent month. Also based on this trend, we expect closed sales to fall slightly again next month.

Residential Highlights

Kitsap County's residential inventory in October (1682 listings) is about 4% lower than September and about 6% less than a year ago. Inventory, after rising steadily all year, peaked in July and is now on the decline. Some of the shadow inventory has become active again as bank owned and distressed sales and as sellers coming back to test the market. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 18% of our market, up from 17% we reported last month.  At the end of October, RealtyTrac showed 1449 (up from 1370 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. The MLS shows only about 14% (down from 22% last month) of the distressed property inventory. Closed sales were down 30% compared with October 2009. The more stable 3 month moving average number of Kitsap County closed sales is down 24% compared to a year ago.

Prices are steady...

The County’s monthly median closed sale price has leveled off with relatively more low priced and high priced sales versus the middle price range. October's median price ($245,500)  rose about 1% compared to September, and is 3% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($252,528) is about 2% lower than last month and is about 1% higher than a year ago. Looking beyond the market ups and downs caused by the federal tax incentive programs, home prices have been about the same for a year. The current low median price coupled with record low interest rates offers good affordability. Conventional mortgage rates are now at a record low 4.21% for 30 year loans. Jumbo loans keep improving, and are now offered at about 4.875%, also well down compared to recent months.  At these low rates this is a very good time for move up buyers to get into a more expensive home. The Kitsap County conventional and FHA loan limits remain at $475,000, which has helped sales of higher priced homes. The VA loan lender-imposed limit is back to $417,000. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller expectations…

The October median list price fell to $298,950 from $299,000 last month. This is another good indicator that home prices in our area are continuing to fall. Median list prices have fallen significantly (over 8%) since a year ago as sellers became more aggressive in getting their properties sold. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 9.7 months, somewhat slower than the 8.6 month turnover in September. Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In October, we had a drop in the number of listings and a decrease in the number of sales. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-10.

The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. In the higher price ranges, there were 2 sales above $800,000 with 111 active listings on the market in that price range. See the graph below for a better perspective. Every seller is in a price war and beauty contest at the same time. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.

The number of pending sales in October was down 33% compared to a year ago and was down about 10% from September. The statistics for October pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different parts of the County. It looks like the pending sales leveled or fell in most communities.

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a November median price of about $285,000, 4% higher than a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $269,667, about 2% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was down 33% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 26% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Silverdale pending sales in November fell 20% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (97) is 20% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.7 months,  same as reported last month and slower than the 4.2 month turnover of a year ago. Silverdale is  a buyer's market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market

These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The November median sales price for Poulsbo was $285,000, down about 2% from a year ago and down 17% from last month. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $308,735, about 4% higher than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo fell 41% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 26% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 25% from a year ago. The Poulsbo listing inventory (127) is 42% higher than a year ago. Unlike most areas - inventory is building in Poulsbo. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) has ballooned to 14 months, faster than the 20 months reported last month, but much slower than the 4.2 months reported a year ago. Poulsbo is a buyer’s market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $152,450 at the end of November, 8% lower than a year ago and about 5% lower than last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price ($142,467) was about 12% lower than a year ago and 11% lower than last month.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago.   Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 31% lower than a year ago and 32% higher than last month. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 26% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is down 24% from last year. The number of Bremerton active listings (139) is 8% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.3 months, much better than the 8.6 month turnover last month about the same as the 5.4 month turnover a year ago. Low end sales in Bremerton appear to have picked up significantly over the past several months. The Bremerton market is a buyer’s market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market

Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a November median price of $508,375, about 5% more than in October and 4% more than a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price fell about 2% from last month to $518,792 and is 3% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 27% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 26% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in November was unchanged from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (194) fell 7% from October and is about 3% higher than a year ago.  The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.8 months, faster than the 16.1 months in October and faster than the 11.8 months of a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $215,000 at the end of November, 22% lower than a year ago. Because of the relatively lower sales volume in Kingston, a couple high priced sales (or lack thereof) can skew the market. The more stable 3 month moving average ($289,133) of closed sale price is 1% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Kingston closed sales fell 22% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales fell 42% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 26% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (38) is down 27% from a year ago - very low. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.5 months, slower than the 7.1 month turnover reported last month and the 8.7 month turnover of a year ago. Kingston is still a buyer's market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

This is an archive copy of our October Newsletter:

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a October median price of about $264,000, 5% lower than a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $255,633, about 7% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was down 40% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 24% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Silverdale pending sales in October fell 19% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (97) is 20% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.7 months,  quicker than the 14.2month turnover reported last month. Silverdale is  a buyer's market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market

These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The October median sales price for Poulsbo was $344,500, up about 14% from a year ago and 16% from last month. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $320,218, about 7% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 1% higher than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo fell 47% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 24% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 50% from a year ago. The Poulsbo listing inventory (121) is 42% higher than a year ago. Unlike most areas - inventory is building in Poulsbo. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) has ballooned to 20 months, a big slow down from the 5.2 months reported last month and the 3.9 months reported a year ago. Poulsbo is a buyer’s market.

Reposted From http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market