Real Estate Information

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a January median price of about $270,000, a big jump to 41% higher than a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $261,667, less than a percent higher than both last month and a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about the same as it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was down 15% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 18% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Silverdale pending sales in January fell 9% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (92) is 42% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.4 months,  faster than the 11.3 months reported last month and slower than the 7.2 month turnover of a year ago. Silverdale is  a buyer's market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market

Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a January median price of $450,000, about 19% lower than in December and 19% lower than a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price fell about 2% from last month to $504,292 and is 2% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about the same as it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 10% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 18% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in January was unchanged from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (163) rose 4.5% from December and is about 2% lower than a year ago.  The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.9 months, slower than the 6 months in December and slower than the 10.4 months of a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

This is an archive copy of our February Newsletter.

Once in a while we see a real change in our real estate market. A recent Wall St Journal article notes that home prices have returned to pre-bubble levels, and Moody’s Analytics claims in the article that 47 of 70 metro areas now have home affordability as good or better than the affordability prior to the economic crisis. The same article states that Seattle came late to the party and still has an overvalued market. This had also been the case at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which a year ago evaluated both Seattle and Bremerton as overpriced in comparison with their historical median price to median income ratio. Seattle was 2^nd and Bremerton 4^th on their list of overpriced metro areas in the US. However, the tune at John Burns has now changed, with both Seattle and Bremerton evaluated as underpriced and showing Seattle now in 40^th place and Bremerton in 60^th place among 183 metropolitan statistical areas. Housing Wire cites a Zillow report showing that home prices in the 4^th quarter dropped the most in the past 2 years. The Wall St Journal reported that more cash buyers are entering this market to pick up bargain properties. While heavily distressed areas like Miami have 54% of all purchases completed by cash buyers, Seattle buyers pay cash in only 16% of the transactions.

All this talk of falling prices is hard to square with the Kitsap Sun report that January median prices in Kitsap County were up 11% compared to a year ago. January 2010 was an outlier. The median Kitsap residential price in January 2010 fell 6% compared to December 2009 to $224,450, but then recovered in February 2010, rising 12% to $252,435. The Sun’s report doesn’t substantiate a continuing rise in home prices, and we expect that their report for next month will show that prices are falling. Month to month fluctuations are smoothed out in most home price models (such as Case Shiller). We use a 3 month moving average in our graphs (see below). Except for those periods when federal homebuyer tax credits were nearing deadlines, local home prices have been trending downward or remaining flat for more than a year.

The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in January fell sharply, down about 42% from December and is 24% below a year ago. This comes after an unexpected rise in closed sales at the end of the year. Pending sales rose about 24% compared to last month and were about 6% lower than a year ago. In December, there were 225 closed sales and 191 pending sales. In January there were 131 closed sales and 238 pending sales. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, we expect the number of closed sales to rise next month.

Residential Highlights

Kitsap County's residential inventory in January (1397 listings) is about .5% higher than December and about 3% lower than a year ago. So far inventory is not coming back on the market as quickly as last year. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 21% of our market, down from 24% we reported last month.  At the end of January, RealtyTrac showed 1462 (down slightly from 1473 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. The MLS shows only about 20% of the distressed property inventory, so there could be as many as 1163 distressed properties that have yet to be put up for sale. Closed sales were down 24% compared with January 2010. The more stable 3 month moving average number of Kitsap County closed sales is down 18% compared to a year ago.

Prices are steady...

Kitsap County’s monthly median closed sale price in January ($239,995) rose about 2% compared to December, and is 7% higher than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($235,332) is about 1% lower than last month and is about the same as a year ago. Looking beyond the market ups and downs caused by the federal tax incentive programs, home prices have been level or slightly declining over the past year. The current low median price coupled with still low interest rates offers good affordability. Conventional mortgage rates are now at  4.89% for 30 year loans, about the same as last month. The Kitsap County conventional and FHA loan limits remain at $475,000, which has helped sales of higher priced homes. The VA loan lender-imposed limit is $417,000. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller expectations…

The January median list price fell to $280,000, about the same as last month. Median list prices have fallen about 6% over the past year (and are down about 25% from the peak) as sellers have became more aggressive in getting their properties sold.  The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 10.7 months, significantly slower than  the 6.2 month turnover in December. Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In January, the number of listings remained about the same but the number of sales fell.Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-10. 

The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. In the higher price ranges, there were 2 sales in the $700k and above range (both on Bainbridge Island) among 128 listings County wide in that price range. See the graph below for a better perspective. Every seller is in a price war and beauty contest at the same time. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.

The number of pending sales in January was down 6% compared to a year ago and was up about 24% from December. The statistics for January pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for several areas.  

That's our report for February! Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.

Brenda Prowse

Our January report showing December’s statistics generally represents the low point in home sales for the year; however, this year the closed sales in December remained flat with November and higher than earlier in the fall. What changed is the distribution of sales, with 10 of the 11 closed sales either on Bainbridge Island or in Bremerton (and only 1 in the rest of North Kitsap). Also 4 were for more than $1 million and 3 were below $300k - so only a small percentage were in the middle price ranges. Perhaps the increase in higher priced activity was somehow related to the uncertainty over tax rates prior to Congress’s extension of the current rates late in the month. After interest rates rose above 5% in November, the rate for 30 year fixed rate mortages has fallen again to around 4.75%.

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Below is an archive copy of our January 2011 Kitsap Real Estate Market Newsletter:

For the past 4 years years or so the housing market has either been getting worse or stagnating, so it’s refreshing that 2011 brings at least the prospect of our being able to anticipate some amount of recovery. There are still millions of distressed properties awaiting action by banks to restructure loans, sell through short sale, or foreclose upon (Standard and Poors now estimates 44 months to clear the excess). The overhang of distressed properties still limits the home building industry, which is operating far below normal levels with lots of construction and supporting industry workers out of work (about 25% unemployment for construction laborers). This graph of new home sales is from Calculated Risk:

Bad loans still cripple many banks, including about 42% (28 of 66 state banks by my count) of the local and community banks in Washington State operating with some kind of FDIC warning. It has taken a long time for the banks and borrowers negotiate terms to write off the debt. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who purchase loans from banks and sell mortgage backed securities, remain in government conservatorship and continue to lose money with no plan yet formulated to either liquidate them or restore them as viable businesses.

Northwest Economist Bill Conerly’s latest newsletter provides a good starting point to survey the recovery. The number of net new jobs has been positive for the past several months - there is gradual improvement in employment. Any improvement in employment will mitigate the fall in home prices, expected to continue in 2011, and reduce the number of distressed properties. Corporate profits have recovered and exceed the total after tax profits preceding the recession. Small business income has been much slower to recover and is still below the pre-recession peak. Similarly, manufacturing has been making gradual gains but has not reached the peak before the recession. The stock market has been improving gradually and may make a small gain this year. The Federal Funds Rate remains near zero, but the 10 year Treasury bill (and mortgage interest rates) rose quickly at the end of last year, Conerly notes, because the economy is improving. Contrary to some reports, this should not be viewed as a threat to the recovery. Washington State’s employment is fairing pretty well, but needs the US to grow before we can make further progress. 

There was a solid improvement in the number of closed sales in Kitsap County in December, but based on pending sales it's hard to predict that this trend will continue. The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in December rose about 26% from November but still remains 1% below a year ago. This is a considerable improvement over the past several months as the effects of last year’s first time homebuyer tax credit caused sales to rise and then fall in an abnormal fashion. Pending sales fell about 11% compared to last month. In November, there were 178 closed sales and 214 pending sales. In December there were 225 closed sales and 191 pending sales. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Though pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months, this month was different. The number of closed sales rose sharply even though pending sales of 2 months ago were falling. Some other factor pressured more pending sales to close in December - perhaps fear that taxes might rise next year, perhaps the rise in mortgage interest rates, something. Based on past trends, we expect the number of closed sales to fall slightly next month.

Residential Highlights

Kitsap County's residential inventory in December (1390 listings) is about 11% lower than November and about 2% higher than a year ago. Some of the shadow inventory has become active again as bank owned and distressed sales and as sellers coming back to test the market. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 24% of our market, up from 19% we reported last month.  At the end of December, RealtyTrac showed 1473 (up from 1464 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. The MLS shows only about 22% of the distressed property inventory, so there could be as many as 1144 distressed properties that have yet to be put up for sale. Closed sales were down just 1% compared with December 2009. The more stable 3 month moving average number of Kitsap County closed sales is down 21% compared to a year ago. 

Prices are steady...

Kitsap County’s monthly median closed sale price in December ($236,000) rose about 3% compared to November, and is 2% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($237,167) is about 1% lower than last month and is about 3% lower than a year ago. Looking beyond the market ups and downs caused by the federal tax incentive programs, home prices have been level or slightly declining over the past year. The current low median price coupled with still low interest rates offers good affordability. Conventional mortgage rates are now at  4.86% for 30 year loans. This rate rose briefly above 5% but now seems to have stabilized a bit below 5%. Jumbo loan rates have seen a similar jump.  The Kitsap County conventional and FHA loan limits remain at $475,000, which has helped sales of higher priced homes. The VA loan lender-imposed limit is $417,000. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller expectations…

The December median list price fell to $279,950, an unexpected 6% drop after being fairly steady at about $299,000 for some time. Median list prices have fallen about 9% over the past year as sellers have became more aggressive in getting their properties sold.  The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.2 months, somewhat faster than the 8.8 month turnover in November. Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In December, we had a drop in the number of listings and a considerable rise in the number of sales. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-10.

The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. In the higher price ranges, 8 of 9 sales above $700,000 (including 4 above $1,000,000) took place on Bainbridge Island. There was only one sale in the $700k and above range in the rest of the County. Again, there’s probably a tax or interest rate incentive that drove the sudden jump in higher priced sales on Bainbridge Island. See the graph below for a better perspective. Every seller is in a price war and beauty contest at the same time. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.

The number of pending sales in December was down 3% compared to a year ago and was down about 11% from November. The statistics for December pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different parts of the County. It looks like the pending sales leveled or fell in most communities - Poulsbo’s pending sales actually rose a little.

That's our report for January! Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.

Brenda Prowse

These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The December median sales price for Poulsbo was $288,500, up about 14% from a year ago and up about 1% from last month. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $306,000, about 8% higher than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo fell 39% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 21% Countywide from a year ago.  Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales rose 13% from a year ago. The Poulsbo listing inventory (115) is 62% higher than a year ago. Unlike most areas - inventory has been building in Poulsbo. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) improved to 6.4 months, faster than the 14.1 months reported last month, but somewhat slower than the 5.9 months reported a year ago. Poulsbo is a buyer’s market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $223,150 at the end of December, 25% lower than a year ago. Because of the relatively lower sales volume in Kingston, a couple high priced sales (or lack thereof) can skew the market. The more stable 3 month moving average ($242,683) of closed sale price is 16% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Kingston closed sales fell 50% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales fell 38% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 21% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (37) is down 40% from a year ago - very low. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.2 months, considerably faster than the 9.5 month turnover reported last month but not as fast as the 4.8 month turnover of a year ago. Despite healthy appearing inventory turnover, Kingston is still a buyer's market. Much inventory has been pulled off the market, and there is a shadow inventory of distressed properties that must still clear the market.
 

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $163,500 at the end of December, 7% higher than a year ago and about 7% higher than last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price ($158,633) was less than 1% lower than a year ago and 11% higher than last month.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago.   Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 19% lower than a year ago and 17% higher than last month. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 21% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is down 15% from last year. The number of Bremerton active listings (119) is 14% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6 months, a little slower than the 5.3 month turnover last month and the 5.1 month turnover a year ago. Despite the healthy inventory turnover rate, Bremerton market is a buyer’s market because there is still a significant shadow inventory of distressed properties that must at some point clear the market.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market

Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a December median price of $554,500, about 9% more than in November and 10% more than a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price fell about 1% from last month to $515,292 and is 4% higher than a year ago. With inventory expected to rise in January and knowledge that there is a significant amount of shadow inventory, we do not expect prices to continue to rise, and there is a possibility that they will fall in coming months. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 10% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 21% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in December fell 4% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (156) fell 20% from November and is about 4% lower than a year ago.  The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6 months, faster than the 10.8 months in November and faster than the 7 months of a year ago. Despite a healthy improvement in inventory turnover, we still think that Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market. 

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

See more on of our December 2010 Kitsap Real Estate Affordability Report at http://tinyurl.com/2w9p4gf.