Real Estate Information

 Reposted From http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market

Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $153,150 at the end of December, about 2% higher than a year ago and down 4% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 22% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 13% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (138) is 25% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.1 months (better than the 6.1 last month and from 8.7 months a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for an December median price of $505,000, about 3% higher than in November. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 1% from last month to $495,000 and is 5% lower than it was a year ago. Sales at the top of the market, while still pretty slow, did improve somewhat compared to previous months. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is just about the same as it was a year ago. Note that prices tailed off at the end of last year so this parity is not unexpected. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 50% higher than a year ago. Recall that sales were very weak at the end of 2008 and the number of closed sales at the end of last year was improved. The 3 month moving average number of pending sales in December rose 53% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 39% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (162) is down 16% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months, improved from the 11.7 month turnover rate of last month. Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

You can view or download the Prowse and Company December 2009 Newletter at this link:

http://www.kitsaphomefinder.net/news/decnews09web.pdf

Happy New Year!

Below is a repost of information from our other website at bprowse.com. To see the full article, including extensive additional information about current affordability in Kitsap County, follow this link:

http://bprowse.com/kitsap_market_blog/view/1015/kitsap_real_estate_year_end_review_and_affordability_report

This has been an eventful year for our Kitsap real estate market and for the national market as well. Here are some of the landmark events from the past year (with links to find more detail):

• Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Job creation from the $800 billion stimulus has not gone as predicted in January. In June we realized that unemployment numbers were much higher than the predicted worst case, even though the stimulus had been passed. Kitsap County, with a higher percentage of government jobs, has about 7.6% unemployment, compared to the national rate of about 10% and a state rate of about 9.2%.
• The first time homebuyer tax credit resulted in many renters pursuing purchases of low priced homes as prices in the low end fell dramatically and sales increased. One study showed that the actual cost to obtain a new buyer in the program was $43k per home sold. Rental vacancy rates have reached record highs.
• Treasury's Financial Stability Plan was developed to get credit flowing by conducting bank stress tests. Results in May showed none of the 19 largest banks were to be failed, but that some needed to raise capital.
• Treasury introduced the Home Affordability and Stability Plan: Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) offered $75 billion assistance to help 7 to 9 million homeowners with mortgage mods or refinancing. Few mortgage mods have been made permanent thus far. Recently approved new guidelines for short sale and deed-in-lieu for non GSE loans to go into effect next April. Support for Bankruptcy law modification to permit mortgage cram downs by bankruptcy judges did not pass in Congress. To strengthen the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), Federal Reserve purchases of GSE mortgage backed securities and debt have helped maintain historically low interest rates for fixed rate conventional loans.
• In July 2009 we saw reports that the world was pulling out of the recession.
• By late summer the number of conventional conforming mortgages began to greatly exceed other forms of home loans in number of defaults as the toll of falling home prices took effect. 14% of all loans in the US are in default or foreclosure.
• The percentage of new construction sales nationwide has fallen behind the percentage of residential resales by a considerable margin this year, whereas normally the two categories track closely together. One expert surmises that this is because builders cannot compete in price with the foreclosure market, where banks are operating with a much different motivation to rid themselves of problem properties and loans. Recovery of the real estate market is in large part dependent upon recovery of the new construction business. Kitsap County's construction sector is faring poorly much as elsewhere in the country. The recently announced closure of Parker Lumber in Bremerton testifies to this.
• The number of Kitsap County closed sales for 2009 exceeds the number in 2008. There is speculation that prices in the higher price ranges will continue to fall in the coming year, whereas the lower price ranges may be approaching a bottom. Listing inventory (1526 homes in November) has fallen to its lowest level in several years, but there is again speculation that there is still a considerable shadow inventory of bank owned properties not on the market, potential foreclosures currently pursuing loan modifications, and sellers holding out for a better market (we estimate about 1000 total). Pending sales were running well ahead of closed sales for most of the year because of long lead short sales and REO sales. Pending sales declined significantly at year end.
• While the large banks are being protected and enabled by government policy, there have been 140 community and regional bank failures. Westsound Bank in Bremerton failed in the spring. Frontier Bank, Golf Savings Bank, and American Marine Bank in Kitsap County have received FDIC letters. Experts anticipate that more banks will fail next year than this year.
• Although affordability for conventional loans has improved significantly this year as prices have fallen and interest rates have remained low, buyers cannot borrow anywhere close to as much as they could several years ago when exotic loans could be obtained. As a result, many homes were built in the higher price ranges where now the pool of buyers has become much smaller, first because buyers with a given income cannot borrow nearly as much, and secondly because buyers must now have a large downpayment whereas a few years ago large sums could be borrowed with no money down.

Prowse and Company’s December 2009 Kitsap Waterfront Update is now ready for download. You can view the waterfront page here or download the newsletter here.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a November median price of about $275,000. This median is up 17% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price in November of $275,750 was up about 3% from a year ago. Silverdale’s median price fell sooner and has remained fairly stable over the past year. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 4% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was unchanged from a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 22% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in November is up 7% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (74) is 24% lower than a year ago. There are only about half as many homes on the market now as there were at peak inventory in mid 2007. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.7 months, better than the 8.1 months reported last month. Silverdale has been one of the area’s better markets, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The November median sales price for Poulsbo was $291,378, down about 14% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $298,293, about 10% lower than in November 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 4% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 18% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 22% Countywide from a year ago.  November pending sales were up 11% from a year ago in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (84) is 45% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.2 months, a little worse than the 3.9 months reported last month. Poulsbo’s market has been humming along for the past several months, but it is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling.

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $275,000 at the end of November, 12% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 15% compared to a year ago.   The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 4% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 50% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 140% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 22% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (52) is down 43% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.7 months (worse than the 3.9 months last month). While we definitely see evidence of lower prices and higher sales, we suspect that Kingston will continue to be a buyer's market. 

Reposted from http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market

Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $164,975 at the end of November, about 24% lower than a year ago and about 3% higher than last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 22% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 4% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 24% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 22% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 17% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (151) is 27% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.4 months, a little worse than the 6.7 last month. It’s a good bet that the Bremerton market benefitted from the rush to beat the first time home buyer tax credit expiration. The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold