This is an archive copy of our May newsletter.
Real estate prices are falling throughout the country. The market this spring is not yet recovering. How long can this go on? Are we insulated from this in Kitsap County? We’ll describe how Kitsap is doing in some detail later in this article, but first let’s consider the national real estate picture, as conveyed by a panoply of reports.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported:
Home values fell 3% in the first quarter from the previous quarter and 1.1% in March from the previous month, pushed down by an abundance of foreclosed homes on the market, according to data to be released Monday by real-estate website Zillow.com. Prices have now fallen for 57 consecutive months, according to Zillow.
Calculated Risk Blog reports on CoreLogic:
CoreLogic ... today released its March Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the eighth month in a row. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 7.5% in March 2011 compared to March 2010. ... Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year price declined by 0.96 percent in March 2011 compared to March 2010.
The index is down 7.5% over the last year, and off 34.8% from the peak.
There are probably around 2 million vacant housing units nationwide. This is a hard number to predict from available data. Calculated Risk elaborates:
Recently economist Tom Lawler took a long look at the 2010 Census data, and estimated there were about 2 to 3 million excess vacant housing units as of April 1, 2010. With the record low number of housing units delivered last year, Lawler estimated that as of April 1, 2011 the excess “would be somewhere in the range of 1.45 to 2.45 million units – with the latter almost certainly too high”. With another record low number of units added to the housing stock this year, the excess will be in the 750 thousand to 1.7 million range next April (with the latter “certainly too high"). This suggests the excess supply will be gone sometime between early 2014 and 2016.
Another post at Calculated Risk put the percentage of properties with loans that are underwater nationwide at 28.6%. Seattle is worse:
|
Largest 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas Covered by Zillow
|
Zillow Home Value Index
|
|
|
Q1 2011
|
QoQ Change
|
YoY Change
|
Change From Peak
|
Negative Equity*
|
|
Seattle, Wash.
|
$259,200
|
-1.7%
|
-11.7%
|
-32.1%
|
34.4%
|
Based on information from LPS Applied Analytics, even though the number of delinquent borrowers is declining:
The foreclosure pipeline is still bloated with overhang at every level:
– There are almost twice as many loans deteriorating greater than 90+ days delinquent vs. starting foreclosure.
– There are almost three times the number foreclosure starts vs. foreclosure sales.
– 90+ and foreclosure inventory levels are almost 45 times monthly foreclosure sales.
There is a way that you can look at how the overall market has changed your home price since you purchased. For instance, go to FHFA's Home Price Index Calculator (follow link) to consider how a home in Kitsap purchased for $150,000 in 2000 has changed in value. You can plug in your own numbers to see how the market has changed the value of your home in recent years. Most people who purchased before 2000 and did not pull out cash in a refi are still ahead today. It also provides a good picture of how prices have declined since the peak, though it doesn’t show the steep drops of the past several months in 2011. You can’t necessarily rely on this as a valuation for your home since other factors besides the market affect your home’s value to a potential buyer.
A last note - it appears that conventional and FHA loan limits for Kitsap County will revise downward in October from the current $475,000, conventional to $417,000 and FHA to $307,050. This will reduce the number of buyers who can purchase in the higher price ranges. This from a related article in the NY Times:
For the last three years, federal agencies have backed new mortgages as large as $729,750 in desirable neighborhoods in high-cost states like California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Without the government covering the risk of default, many lenders would have refused to make the loans. With the economy in free fall, Congress broadened its traditionally generous support of housing to a substantial degree.
But now Democrats and Republicans agree that the taxpayer should no longer be responsible for homes valued well above the national average, and are about to turn a top slice of the housing market into a testing ground for whether the private mortgage market can once again go it alone. The result, analysts say, will be higher-cost loans and fewer potential buyers for more expensive homes.
The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in April fell, down about 13% from March and down about 24% from a year ago. Pending sales fell about 3% compared to last month and were 32% lower than a year ago, when there had been a surge because the homebuyer tax credit was expiring. In March, there were 211 closed sales and 288 pending sales. In April there were 183 closed sales and 279 pending sales. 34% of the closed sales were distressed properties. 27% of the pending sales were distressed properties. In 2010, 25% of all closed sales were distressed properties, so we are seeing more distressed sales now than previously. Among closed distressed sales, bank owned sales were more than 3 times the number of short sales closed. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, we expect the number of closed sales to rise next month (but note that this month’s trend in closed sales did not track).

Residential Highlights
Kitsap County's residential inventory in April (1578 listings) is about 8% higher than March and about 10% lower than a year ago. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 18% of our market, down from 20% we reported last month. At the end of April, RealtyTrac showed 1138 (1118 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. The MLS shows only about 25% of the distressed property inventory, so there could be as many as 853 distressed properties that have yet to be put up for sale. Closed sales were down 24% compared with April 2010. The more stable 3 month moving average number of Kitsap County closed sales is down 13% compared to a year ago.

Prices are falling...
Kitsap County’s monthly median closed sale price in April ($210,800) fell about 7% compared to March, and is 8% lower than a year ago. This median is down 31% from the peak in 2007. The median price in any given month can fluctuate, but the trend of the past 2 months, where the median has fallen from $250k to about $210k (down 16%) certainly seems to be downward. The more stable (but also lagging in showing trends) 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($229,267) is about 4% lower than last month and about 5% lower than a year ago. The current low median price coupled with still low interest rates offers the best affordability we’ve seen in years. Conventional mortgage rates are now at 4.59% for 30 year loans, down from about 4.9% last month. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller expectations…
The April median list price remained at $289,000, up about 4% from the median of the past several months. Median list price is about 4% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 8.6 months, slower than the 6.9 month turnover in March. The turnover rate has been driven by the under $200k market, where there was 5.1 months of inventory. All higher price ranges have 9 or more months of inventory. Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In April, the number of listings rose and the number of sales fell compared to March. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-11.


The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. In the higher price ranges, there were 3 sales in the $800k and above range among 100 listings County-wide in that price range. See the graph below for a better perspective. Every seller is in a price war and beauty contest at the same time. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.


The number of pending sales in April was down 32% compared to a year ago and was down about 3% from March. The statistics for April pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different parts of the County.

Affordability
We assume that a buyer making the median family income puts 20% down on the median priced home and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. We assume that a first time buyer making 70% of the median income puts 10% down on a house priced at 85% of the median and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with mortgage insurance. We assume that both buyers can afford to spend a maximum of 25% of their monthly income on the principal plus interest of the loan. Using the annual averages of median price, median income, and average annual 30 year fixed interest rate since 2001, we plot an affordability index equal to the maximum affordable payment divided by the actual payment. When the index is greater than 1, the loan is affordable to the typical buyer. When it is less than 1 some buyers cannot afford to purchase. Mortgage insurance quotes are dependent on credit scores - MI for a FICO credit score of 700 might be $20 per month higher than MI for a credit score of 750. We use 750 and have corrected all PMI values to be consistent with this. Our numbers for 2011 are estimates using the latest monthly data for median prices, interest rates, and median income. As a point of reference the index in 2001 was 1.31 and the first time buyers index was .89.
Affordability is at its highest level in a long time. With a significant drop in median price and a drop in the interest rates, the affordability index surged to 1.46 in May from 1.31 in April. First time buyer affordability also rose to .97 from .88 in April. Below is a graph of the year-to-year changes in affordability and a second graph showing month-to-month affordability over the past year.
| Year | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Annual Average interest rate |
5.87 |
6.41 |
6.34 |
5.80 |
5.03 |
4.80 |
4.59 |
| Median Income |
$58456 |
$57876 |
$55430 |
$61106 |
$60890 |
$60455 |
$60455 |
| Median Price |
$250000 |
$275000 |
$290343 |
$265000 |
$244499 |
$240353 |
$210800 |
| Monthly payment |
$1182 |
$1378 |
$1443 |
$1244 |
$1054 |
$996 |
$864 |
| Affordable payment |
$1218 |
$1206 |
$1155 |
$1273 |
$1269 |
$1259 |
$1259 |
| Affordability Index |
1.03 |
0.88 |
0.80 |
1.02 |
1.20 |
1.25 |
1.46 |
| 1st time buyer payment |
$1131 |
$1317 |
$1381 |
$1189 |
$1008 |
$952 |
$908 |
| 1st time buyer affordable payment |
$852 |
$844 |
$808 |
$891 |
$888 |
$882 |
$882 |
| 1st time buyer affordability index |
0.69 |
0.59 |
0.54 |
0.68 |
0.80 |
0.84 |
0.97 |

May’s APR is 4.812% on a 30-Year and 4.195% on a 15-Year, both conforming. April’s APR was 5.191% on a 30-Year and 4.573% on a 15-Year, both conforming. If you qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA loans , these programs have are attractive for low downpayment buyers. The conventional and FHA loan limits remain at $475,000 in Kitsap County. These higher limits have helped sales of higher priced homes. The VA loan lender imposed limit is back to $417,000. A typical 30 year fixed jumbo APR (with total costs of the loan, not just the rate factored in) is 5.264% on one major bank web site - down from last month. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://bankrate.com/.