Real Estate Information

See an update to our Waterfront graphs here. Download the latest waterfront update here.

Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,900 at the end of July, about 12% lower than a year ago and down 12% from last month. The more stable 3 month moving average was 6% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is up 12% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide rise of 10%). The number of month end Bremerton pending sales is up 39% from last year, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (183) rose 17% from last month and is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.9 months (improved from 5.4 last month). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyers market because of shadow inventory that has been pulled off unsold, but the lower price ranges are definitely selling very well now.

Total listings on the market by month for Bremerton
Number of Closed Sales each month for Bremerton
Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in Bremerton

These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The July median sales price for Poulsbo was $282,960, down about 17% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $309,320, about 8% lower than in July 2008. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago.  July pending sales were down 19% in Poulsbo. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (116) is 30% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.4 months, a bit slower than the 5.3 months reported last month. Poulsbo is probably still a buyers market because of the shadow inventory of homes pulled off the market in the past year without selling, but looks like it has improved recently.

Total listings on the market by month for Poulsbo

Number of Closed Sales each month for Poulsbo

Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in Poulsbo

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a July median price of about $308,000. This median is down 2% percent from a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale prince in July of $308,500 was up about 5% from a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is down 8% compared to a year ago.  The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was 19% higher than a year ago, compared to a rise in closed sales of 10% for the County as a whole. The number of Silverdale pending sales in July is up 120% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (81) is 43% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 3 months, improved from last month's rate of 4.9 months. Silverdale is looking now like a seller’s market, but there appears to be a large shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market that will deter prices from rising.

Total listings on the market by month for silverdale
Number of Closed Sales each month for silverdale
Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in silverdale

Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a month end median price of $624,250 at the end of July, down 28% from June. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale prices ($674,733) rose 4.1% from last month and is 16% higher than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of  closed sales is 6% higher than a year ago. The number of pending sales in July rose 8% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 8% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (250) is down 17% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10.5 months, improved from the 19.6 month turnover rate of last month . Bainbridge Island is a buyers market.

Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $450,000 at the end of July, 22% higher than a year ago. The low sales volume can produce large fluctuations when one or two high priced homes sell.  The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is up 7% compared to a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price has fallen 8% over the past year.  The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales is 14% lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales is 13% higher than a year ago. Recall our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The number of closed sales is up 10% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (68) is down 33% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.5 months (down from 10 months last month). Sales in North Kitsap still seem to be slower than farther south in the County. Kingston is a buyer's market.

Total listings on the market by month for North Kitsap

Number of Closed Sales each month for North Kitsap

Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in North Kitsap

While most of the press have moved on to debate proposals for a massive change in our health care system, we’ve been maintaining our focus on the real estate market.

Two agents in our office, Taylor Brown and Hugh Nelson, recently received their Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) designation from the Distressed Properties Institute. Over 10,000 agents nationwide now have this designation, and numbers continue to grow quickly. Why the interest? Our newsletters have been telling this story, but let’s try to summarize some of the material that was presented in the course.

• The CDPE Course cited that $8.5 Trillion has been allocated by our government in the past 2 years to stem the economic crisis (here’s an article in 2008 that accounts for $7.8 Trillion). According to our instructor, this is more than the combined inflation adjusted past expenditures for the Louisiana Purchase, World War I, World War II, the entire NASA budget, the Marshall Plan, and the Savings and Loan Crisis. In fact they don’t total half what this crisis has cost. Note he didn’t mention the cost of the New Deal.
• According to the Mortgage Banker’s Association, more than 13% of all mortgages are in default (about 4% in foreclosure and 9% have missed one or more payments). Over half the loans in default are prime loans - unemployment and falling real estate values are driving the problem. The number of homeowners not making payments is over twice the annual national number of residential home sales.
• Although the government has enacted legislation and policy to renegotiate mortgages and keep people in their homes, this effort has been ineffective. The main mechanism that banks are using to rid themselves of bad assets is foreclosure. Unfortunately, foreclosure is very damaging - banks lose more money, neighborhood values fall, the homeowner’s credit is ruined, and home prices fall further, causing more people to owe more than their homes are worth.
• Despite the appearance that banks avoid short sales, they actually don’t want the homes back. Most foreclosures are being delayed longer than the state mandated foreclosure times. The best solution for the bank and for the homeowner who has neither the income nor liquid assets to further pay down his/her mortgage is to do a short sale. The bank loses less money, the homeowner suffers less damage to his/her credit, and home prices fall less, so fewer neighbors slip underwater in their mortgages. Fannie Mae even has a pilot program to preapprove short sales.

Unfortunately most homeowners and many real estate agents don’t understand the mechanism involved to provide the bank loss mitigation staff with the information they need to consider and approve the short sale. Banks are woefully understaffed and under prepared to handle the volume of short sales, so only a well organized short sale package with all the information stands a chance of getting to the top of the heap so it can move on to a decision maker. Prowse and Company now has the knowledge and tools to provide the best service possible to our clients in distressed sales. We’ll be providing more on this topic.

There is good news - the number of closed residential sales in Kitsap County in July was the highest since July 2007. Closed sales this year are 6% behind last year (11% behind last month), pending sales are running 27% ahead (29% ahead last month). The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.4 months, improved from June's 7.1 months and the best turnover we've seen since 2007. In June, there were 249 closed sales and 372 pending sales. In July there were 284 closed sales and 346 pending sales. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales.

A typical pending sale should close within 60 days, so we should see the closed sales lagging pending sales by about 2 months. However, in our situation the closed sales level has not reached the pending sales level for 6 months, so something else is up. Pending sales have been running ahead of a year ago and closed sales behind a year ago every month this year principally because short sales are categorized as pending, even though many will either fall apart or be delayed months in closing. Tighter lending standards, delays in approving short sale offers, and sellers and bank owned properties with little room to give have made it more difficult for Realtors to close sales. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-09. 

Residential Highlights
Kitsap County's residential inventory in July (1830 listings) is about 4% higher than June and down about 28% from a year ago. This trend is counter to most years and suggests, at least at this point, that a portion of last year's sellers may be waiting for conditions to improve.  In part inventory has been held down artificially by the accounting for short sales, where properties with offers still awaiting bank approval are shifted to pending status even though many of these properties are still open to receive other offers. The number of pending sales in July was up 21% compared to a year ago and down 7% from June. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales Countywide is up 10% compared to a year ago, improved from minus 3% last month. The graph of raw monthly data below shows that last month’s closed sales were the highest since mid 2007.

Prices are steady…
The median price in Kitsap County has been pretty steady this year, and is up slightly from the beginning of the year. July's median price ($251,500) was up 2.7% from June (see graph of 3 month moving average below), and is about 6% lower than a year ago. This low median price coupled with historically low interest rates (but higher than earlier this year) has improved affordability to where it was at the start of the decade. The recent fall in interest rates has made a great difference in affordability for conforming conventional, VA, and FHA buyers. Conventional mortgage rates have been holding fairly steady. Jumbo loans are becoming more accessible - they are offered at about .8 to .9% higher than the 30 yr fixed rate conventional.  With passage of the President's Stimulus Program, the conventional, VA, and FHA loan limits were restored to $475,000 in Kitsap County, which should give a lift to sales of higher priced homes. We have reworked our median price graphs to show a 3 month moving average of prices, which will better show trends and reduce the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller expectations…
The July median list price fell from $350,000 to $339,250, reversing the rising trend of the past several months. This market is in transition, with the percentage of sales in the upper price ranges depressed compared to the past several years and what could be a large number of listings withdrawn into a shadow inventory that could return to the market if prices improve. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.4 months, better than 7.1 months in June and the best we've seen since 2007. The inventory turnover also varies significantly by price range, with higher priced homes selling much more slowly than lower priced homes. See the graph below for a better perspective - note that this month’s graph shows that while turnover is still very fast below $200k, it actually got worse in the $200 to 300k range. However, in the higher price ranges it is definitely improving even though it is still slow. This month’s improvement in the overall turnover is the result of improvement in the higher price ranges. Every seller is in a price war and beauty contest at the same time. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales. Note also the trend in number of closed sales has improved steadily.      

The number of pending sales is up 21%. The statistics for pending sales (compared to July pending sales last year) varied for different parts of the County. Below is a messy graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different parts of the County.

A new state law (SB 5810) effective July 26th provides 60 days for tenants (but not home owners) to vacate after foreclosure and requires that trustees not issue notice of default until 30 days after they have made initial contact with the borrower. Trustees in their letters must advise homeowners about how to contact DFI HUD approved housing counselors and about the new Washington State Bar Association free legal services to homeowners facing foreclosure.

The Prowse and Company waterfront update for July 2009 contains this graph showing selling price to original list price as a percentage versus days on the market for all 68 Kitsap Waterfront sales this year. It shows the cost in time for homeowners who list for too high a price. It also shows that except for homes priced attractively that sell quickly, very few homes sell for near their original asking price, and the final price gets lower the longer they sit on the market. (Click image below to see larger version.)

Find addtional details about affordability and current market trends by reading more of this report.

Statistics we refer to are for that part of Poulsbo encompassing the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, including parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. The market for other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. Poulsbo's June median sale price was $290,000, about 16% lower than in June 2008. Homes in Poulsbo were selling for a three month moving average median sale price of about $317,333 at the end of June, down about 5% from a year ago. Kitsap County's 3 month moving average median price has fallen 10% over the past year. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo has fallen 11% from a year ago. The number of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  June pending sales were up 211% compared to a year ago in Poulsbo (last month they were up 121%). The Poulsbo listing inventory (112) is 37% lower than a year ago and dropped 7% last month. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.3 months, improved from the 8 months last month. Because there is probably a considerable shadow inventory of unsold homes not currently on the market, Poulsbo is still a buyers market.

Total listings on the market by month for Poulsbo

Number of Closed Sales each month for Poulsbo

Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in Poulsbo