Real Estate Information

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a March median price of about $254,225, 4% lower than a year ago and 33% higher than last month. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $221,458, 1% lower than last month and about 18% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 14% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales is 52% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 3% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average of Silverdale pending sales in March was 77% higher than a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (79) is 19% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.9 months, considerably faster than the 8.8 months reported last month and faster than the 14 month turnover of a year ago. Silverdale is a buyer's market.

​Reposted from: http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market

These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The March median sales price for Poulsbo was $264,500, down about 6% from a year ago and up about 3% from last month. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $243,833, about 17% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 14% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo fell 3% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 3% Countywide from a year ago. Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales was up 6% from a year ago. The Poulsbo listing inventory (99) is 10% lower than a year ago and 29% higher than last month - inventory is building quickly! The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) fell slightly to 7.1 months from last month’s 5.9 month turnover rate and is faster than the 10 months reported a year ago. Poulsbo is a buyer’s market.

​Reposted from: http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest of the remaining housing markets in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other nearby communities. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $286,000 at the end of March, 16% higher than a year ago and 85% higher than last month. Month-to-month fluctuations in the low volume Kingston market make these raw numbers difficult to interpret. The more stable 3 month moving average ($235,317) of closed sale price is 5% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 14% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Kingston closed sales was 36% higher than a year ago, while the number of pending sales was 100% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 3% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (49) is the same as a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.9 months, much faster than the 14.7 month turnover reported last month and slower than the 12.3 month turnover of a year ago. Kingston is still a buyer's market.

Reposted from: http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market

Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $118,500 at the end of March, 1% higher than a year ago and 19% higher than last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price ($110,983) was about 16% lower than a year ago and 6% lower than last month. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 14% lower than it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 21% higher than a year ago and 2% higher than last month. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 3% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 50% from last year. The number of Bremerton active listings (104) is 6% lower than a year ago and 5% lower than last month. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.5 months, faster than both the 6.1 month turnover last month and the 6.1 month turnover of a year ago. The Bremerton market is still a buyer’s market.

​Reposted from: http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market

Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a March median price of $635,000, about 44% higher than in February and 27% higher than than a year ago. Obviously there have been more sales in the higher price ranges, pushing up the median or middle price among sold properties. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price rose 10% from last month to $543,253 and is 12% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 14% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is about 4% lower than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 3% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in March was up 36% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (196) is 1% higher than in February and 18% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.3 months, slower than the 8.5 months in February and slower than the 5.9 months of a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.

​Reposted from:http://bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market

The graphs and data in our monthly reports can sometimes be misleading. This month it looks like closed sales are low, that prices are markedly below levels of the past 5 years, and that inventory remains very low compared to the past several years. Pending sales appear to be surging. It seems like there is rising demand. If the inventory is low and demand is rising, shouldn’t prices go up? So far this month it’s tough to tell. Comparing closed sales thus far in April with closed sales for March, April’s month-to-date median price has risen to $233,000 from $217,500, while April’s average price has fallen to $271,954 from $294,173. Pretty confusing! Actually it shows a shift in price distribution since the median or middle price has risen (relatively fewer sales in the lower price ranges) and the average has fallen (so the size of the asymmetric long tail in the upper price ranges is relatively smaller). The sales we are seeing often involve sellers who have to sell (including all bank owned and short sales) and buyers who are aggressively negotiating to purchase at the lowest price. Under those circumstances it seems that the best the scarcity of inventory is doing is keeping prices from falling farther. 

The National Association of Realtors is about to report that March median prices are up 3% compared to a year ago. Like many of the price rises and drops in our market, this is more a change in the number of sales in each price range (shifting the middle or median price up or down) rather than an economic effect that floats all boats. In this case the number of distressed sales nation wide fell compared to a year ago. Fewer sales in the lower price ranges (where most distressed sales occur) caused the median or middle price among all sales to be a higher price.

Have we seen the same trend of falling distressed sales in Kitsap County? Although the inventory of distressed homes is far lower now than a year ago (1118 then versus 492 now), the number of closed distressed sales in March 2011 was about the same as in March 2012.

The number of closed sales in Kitsap County in March rose about 29% from February and was about 2% lower than a year ago. Pending sales rose about 25% compared to last month and were about 33% higher than a year ago. In February, there were 160 closed sales and 305 pending sales. In March there were 206 closed sales and 382 pending sales. 38% of the closed sales were distressed properties (same as last month). 29% of the pending sales were distressed properties (same as last month). Among closed distressed sales, bank owned sales were about 4 times the number of short sales closed. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, the it looks like the number of closed sales will rise next month.

Residential Highlights

Kitsap County's residential inventory in March (1306 listings) rose less than 1% from February and is about 10% lower than a year ago. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 21% of our market (24% last month). At the end of March, RealtyTrac showed 492 (523 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. At the beginning of 2011 there were 1473 distressed properties, so we've seen a decline of more than 60%. The MLS shows only about 57% of the distressed property inventory, so there could be as many as 212 distressed properties that have yet to be put up for sale. While this is a large potential increase, it is much smaller than at the start of 2011.

Prices Are Falling...

Kitsap County's monthly median closed sale price in March ($217,750) was down 4% compared to February and down 4% compared to a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($206,717) is 2% lower than last month and about 14% lower than a year ago. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller Expectations…

The March median list price was $269,000, about 2% higher than last month and 4% lower than a year ago. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 6.3 months, faster than the 8.1 month turnover rate in February. The turnover rate for all sales under $400k and above $1 million was less than 8 months. All other price ranges had turnover rates of over 10 months. Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In March, the number of listings rose slightly and the number of sales rose 28% compared to February. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-12.

The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers.There were 10 sales (all but 1 on Bainbridge Island) in the $800k and above range among 71 listings County-wide in that price range. There was a sudden improvement this month in the sales in this price range. Last August there were 140 listings above $800k. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.

The number of pending sales in March was up 33% from a year ago and was up about 25% from February. The statistics for February pending sales varied for different parts of the County. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.

Affordability

We assume that a buyer making the median family income puts 20% down on the median priced home and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. We assume that a first time buyer making 70% of the median income puts 10% down on a house priced at 85% of the median and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with mortgage insurance.  We assume that both buyers can afford to spend a maximum of 25% of their monthly income on the principal plus interest of the loan. Using the annual averages of median price, median income, and average annual 30 year fixed interest rate since 2001, we plot an affordability index equal to the maximum affordable payment divided by the actual payment. When the index is greater than 1, the loan is affordable to the typical buyer. When it is less than 1 some buyers cannot afford to purchase. Mortgage insurance quotes are dependent on credit scores - MI for a FICO credit score of 700 might be $20 per month higher than MI for a credit score of 750. We use 750 and have corrected all PMI values to be consistent with this. Our numbers for 2011 are estimates using the latest monthly data for median prices, interest rates, and median income. As a point of reference the index in 2001 was 1.31 and the first time buyers index was .89.

Affordability improved slightly from March because the median price fell and interest rates remained roughly constant. The affordability index rose to 1.53 in April from 1.48 in March. First time buyer affordability also rose to 1.02 from .99 in March. If you compare to past years, you’ll see that affordability is excellent. While affordability is good, lending standards have tightened considerably, and many borrowers may not qualify for the best available interest rate. Below is a  graph of the year-to-year changes in affordability and a second graph showing month-to-month affordability over the past year.

Prowse and Company's March Waterfront Update is out - see the graphs and download the latest newsletter and stats, as well as our current waterfront listings. See more at http://bprowse.com/kitsap_waterfront or download the newsletter at www.kitsaphomefinder.net/news/mar12wfudweb.pdf. 

Closed waterfront sales rose 71% in February compared to January and were up 33% compared to a year ago. Pending sales are way up - up 40% from January  - so we expect even better closed sales next month. February’s listing inventory lags last year by 20%. Inventroy rose 4% compared to Janurary. January’s inventory turnover rate was about 10 months, improved, but still definitely a buyer’s market.

Homes in Silverdale were selling for a February median price of about $190,650, 29% lower than a year ago and 13% lower than last month. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $223,950, 12% lower than last month and about 13% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 13% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales is 38% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago.  The 3 month moving average of Silverdale pending sales in February was 46% higher than a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (79) is 16% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.8 months, slower than the 8.1 months reported last month and faster than the 18.8 month turnover of a year ago. Silverdale is a buyer's market.

​Reposted from; http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market

These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The February median sales price for Poulsbo was $257,000, down about 7% from a year ago and up about 22% from last month. Prices bounced up from a abnormal January. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $242,517, about 18% lower than a year ago.  The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 13% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo fell 26% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales was the same as a year ago. The Poulsbo listing inventory (77) is 31% lower than a year ago and 12% lower than last month. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) improved to 5.9 months, a great improvement from last month’s 29 month turnover rate and faster than the 10 months reported a year ago. Poulsbo is a buyer’s market.

​Reposted from; http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market

Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest of the remaining housing markets in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other nearby communities. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $155,000 at the end of February, 20% lower than a year ago and 42% lower than last month. Month-to-month fluctuations in the low volume Kingston market make these raw numbers difficult to interpret. The more stable 3 month moving average ($249,650) of closed sale price is 16% higher than a year ago. This average was skewed by an unusually high median price 3 months ago ($537,475). The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is about 13% lower than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average of Kingston closed sales was 25% lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales was 150% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is down 3% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (44) is 5% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 14.7 months, slower than the 8.8 month turnover reported last month and slower than the 10.5 month turnover of a year ago. Kingston is still a buyer's market.

​Reposted from: http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market