Kitsap Real Estate Market Report - February 2012

This is an archive copy of the February newsletter.

While much has been said about the steep drop in the January median sales price in Kitsap County, as well as the drop in the number of closed sales, there are factors in our market that indicate things are getting better. We discuss below that a higher percentage of sales last month were distressed properties with attendant lower prices. The raw numbers in a relatively small sample can be misleading too - just last year we observed a Kitsap County median price decrease of $40,000 between February and April. We expect an upward swing in median sales price in February.

The Federal Government and states have announced a $25 billion settlement with 5 large banks addressing errors in processing foreclosures. An article in the blog Calculated Risk assessed that the impact of this settlement would not make much difference in alleviating problems in the housing market. Considering that the settlement might allow as many as 500,000 mortgages to received reductions in principal, perhaps the number of seriously delinquent loans could be reduced by 10% from the current number of 3.86 million. The larger impact of the settlement is that it clears the way for banks to process more foreclosures (so the distressed property inventory should increase), and will allow more mortgages of the estimated 7 million underwater borrowers not in default to be modified through the new HARP program. From Calculated Risk: 

With the new HARP automated refinancing program coming in March, the borrowers with negative equity and GSE loans will be able to refinance into lower rate mortgages. There borrowers are already current, and if they get a lower mortgage rate (with a faster amortization schedule), they will probably stay current. Not all borrowers with negative equity will eventually default - most won't - and one of the keys to HARP is the shorter amortization schedule that will reduce negative equity fairly quickly.

Calculated Risk thinks the housing bottom is here. For us in Kitsap County, we would just point out that buyer interest seems to be up (the number of page downloads on our web site in January was 20% higher than a year ago), affordability is excellent, pending sales are up, and the economy seems to be getting better.

Kitsap County closed sales in January fell about 37% from December and were about 6% lower than a year ago. Pending sales rose about 42% compared to last month and were about 16% higher than a year ago. In December, there were 195 closed sales and 191 pending sales. In January there were 123 closed sales and 275 pending sales. 48% of the closed sales were distressed properties (compared to 32% last month). 46% of the pending sales were distressed properties (compared with 38% last month). Among closed distressed sales, bank owned sales were more than 3 times the number of short sales closed. This month the median closed sale price dropped sharply. This reflects the higher percentage of sales that were distressed properties. At the end of the year many of the normal seasonal cycle real estate buyers are out of the market, while investors continue to pursue purchases at about the same pace as in other times of the year. Since distressed sales prices are attractive to investors and are generally well below the prices for sales not in distress, prices appear to fall. We expect that median prices will bounce back as we head into 2012. Shown below is a graph of month-by-month pending sales vs closed sales. Pending sales tend to lead closed sales in direction if not magnitude by about 2 months. Based on past trends, the it looks like the number of closed sales may remain low again next month.

Residential Highlights

Kitsap County's residential inventory in January (1319 listings) rose 1% from December and is about 6% lower than a year ago. Distressed properties listed in the MLS make up about 24% of our market, down from 26% reported in January.  At the end of January, RealtyTrac showed 564 (665 last month) Kitsap County homes either in default, in foreclosure, or bank owned. At the beginning of 2011 there were 1473 distressed properties, so we've seen a decline of more than 50%. The MLS shows only about 56% of the distressed property inventory, so there could be as many as 248 distressed properties that have yet to be put up for sale. While this is large potential increase, it is much smaller than at the start of 2011.

Prices are falling...

Kitsap County's monthly median closed sale price in January ($176,500) was down 23% compared to December and down 27% compared to a year ago. Such a large drop seems an anomaly (because of the higher percentage of distressed sales) that we expect will recover next month. The more stable 3 month moving average (see graph below) of the median closed sale price ($212,967) is less than 9% lower than last month and about 10% lower than a year ago. Our median price graphs show a 3 month moving average of prices, which better shows trends and reduces the month-to-month fluctuations.

Seller expectations…

The January median list price was $259,500, about 2% lower than last month and 7% lower than a year ago.  The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 10.7 months, slower than the 6.7 month turnover rate in December. The turnover rate has recently been driven by the under $200k market, which this month had a turnover rate of 5.6 months. All other price ranges, even the $200-300k market, had turnover rates of over 10 months. This again points out that bank owned properties were having a more than usual effect on the market. There were no sales above $500k in South Kitsap, Bremerton, or Silverdale (third month in a row). Inventory turnover is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. In January, the number of listings remained constant and the number of sales dropped compared to December. Shown below are graphs of inventory and inventory turnover for Kitsap County in 2007-12.

The inventory turnover also varies by price range, with higher priced homes selling more slowly than lower priced homes. We've made the point recently that the higher price ranges will be more difficult to reduce in inventory because today's lending environment has greatly reduced the pool of qualified buyers. There were 3 sales in the $800k and above range among 84 listings County-wide in that price range. Inventory turnover in the higher price ranges has improved because the number of active listings has declined sharply rather than because of an increase in the number of closed sales. In August there were 140 listings above $800k. If your price is not best among comparable properties, the chance of sale is very small. Below is a historical depiction of the changes in the ratio of listings to closed sales.

The number of pending sales in January was up 16% from a year ago and was up about 42% from December. The statistics for January pending sales varied for different parts of the County. The more stable 3 month moving average of pending sales (shown on the graphs) has not shown such large changes in value. Below is a graph showing the 3 month moving average of pending sales for different locations.

Affordability

We assume that a buyer making the median family income puts 20% down on the median priced home and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. We assume that a first time buyer making 70% of the median income puts 10% down on a house priced at 85% of the median and obtains a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with mortgage insurance.  We assume that both buyers can afford to spend a maximum of 25% of their monthly income on the principal plus interest of the loan. Using the annual averages of median price, median income, and average annual 30 year fixed interest rate since 2001, we plot an affordability index equal to the maximum affordable payment divided by the actual payment. When the index is greater than 1, the loan is affordable to the typical buyer. When it is less than 1 some buyers cannot afford to purchase. Mortgage insurance quotes are dependent on credit scores - MI for a FICO credit score of 700 might be $20 per month higher than MI for a credit score of 750. We use 750 and have corrected all PMI values to be consistent with this. Our numbers for 2011 are estimates using the latest monthly data for median prices, interest rates, and median income. As a point of reference the index in 2001 was 1.31 and the first time buyers index was .89.

Affordability has risen so much this month (because of the large drop in median price) that it may not be telling us much. It’s definitely at a record level and should tell you that properties are very affordable. We expect affordability to return to lower values next month. Median price fell significantly and interest rates have fallen again as well. The affordability index rose to 1.90 in February from 1.45 in January. First time buyer affordability also rose to 1.27 from 0.97 in January. We haven’t seen first time affordability above 1 since we’ve been reporting on this. While affordability is very good, lending standards have tightened considerably, and many borrowers may not qualify for the best available interest rate. Below is a  graph of the year-to-year changes in affordability and a second graph showing month-to-month affordability over the past year.

February 's APR is 4.054% on a 30-Year and 3.438% on a 15-Year, both conforming. January's APR were 4.054% on a 30-Year and 3.438% on a 15-Year, both conforming. If you qualify for FHA, VA, or USDA loans , these programs have are attractive for low downpayment buyers. As a result of recent Congressional action, the conventional and FHA loan limits have again been raised to $475,000 for Kitsap County. A typical 30 year fixed jumbo APR (with total costs of the loan, not just the rate factored in) is 4.256% on one major bank web site.  To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://bankrate.com/.

Buyers are searching for real estate again. Please try our improved home search athttp://www.prowserealestate.com/IDX-Search.

That's our report for February! We hope you have a great year. Please give me a call if I can help you or anyone you know with purchasing or selling a home.

Brenda Prowse